Pair #1703

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7554

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21304

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:34:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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