Pair #1702

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4456

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

Rules

If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21304

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Viktor Hovland finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:34:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar (a non-major) has no logical connection to winning a PGA Major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -50.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4800
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -55.24% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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