Pair #1701

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21304

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 502

YES ask: 0.9100
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:34:36Z

Reasoning: To finish top 20 in the tournament, a player must make the cut and play the final rounds. Therefore finishing top 20 necessarily implies making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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