Pair #1698

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-VHOV

Valspar Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21304

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3572555

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:34:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar and winning the Masters are completely separate events with no logical dependency in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5110
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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