Pair #1695

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PCAN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3919

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-PCAN

Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 851

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:34:36Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major in 2026 does not require finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship — these are entirely separate tournaments. And finishing top 10 at the Valspar does not imply winning a major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -30.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -35.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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