Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-PCAN
Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 851
YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Patrick Cantlay finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-PCAN
Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 235
YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Patrick Cantlay makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:34:17Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 at the Valspar necessarily requires having made the cut (you cannot finish in the top 10 overall without surviving the cut). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-10 finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.6500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A