Pair #1693

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PCAN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3919

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-PCAN

Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 235

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:34:17Z

Reasoning: Making the cut at the Valspar (a non-major) has no logical connection to winning a major tournament in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -64.66% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8400
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -68.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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