Pair #1691

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-PCAN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3919

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-PCAN

Will Patrick Cantlay win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 579288

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:34:17Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major tournament. Winning it does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply winning the Valspar.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.51% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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