Pair #1689

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-PCAN

Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 851

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-PCAN

Will Patrick Cantlay win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3690723

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:34:17Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship are independent events across different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7860
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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