Pair #1682

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-PCAN

Will Patrick Cantlay lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20464

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-PCAN

Will Patrick Cantlay win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 579288

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:58Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee winning the tournament, and winning the tournament does not require having led after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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