Pair #1681

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-PCAN

Will Patrick Cantlay lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20464

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-PCAN

Will Patrick Cantlay win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3690723

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:58Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 at the Valspar has no logical connection to winning the Masters Tournament. These are independent events at different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9860
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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