Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-PCAN
Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 851
YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Patrick Cantlay finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-PCAN
Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4018
YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Patrick Cantlay finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:58Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A