Pair #168

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-WPG

Will Winnipeg Jets win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Winnipeg Jets
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 70628

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLCENTRAL-26-WPG

Will Winnipeg Jets win the NHL Central Division?

Series: KXNHLCENTRAL
Entity: Winnipeg Jets
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2878

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025-2026 NHL Central Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: A team can win the Stanley Cup without winning their division (wild card entry is possible), and winning the Central Division does not guarantee winning the Cup. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -18.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -22.46% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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