Pair #1678

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-PCAN

Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4018

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-PCAN

Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 235

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:58Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires completing all rounds, which means making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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