Pair #1676

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-PCAN

Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4018

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-PCAN

Will Patrick Cantlay win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3690723

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:58Z

Reasoning: These are entirely different tournaments. A top 20 at the Valspar has no logical connection to winning the Masters, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4560
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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