Pair #167

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-WPG

Will Winnipeg Jets win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Winnipeg Jets
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 70628

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLWEST-26-WPG

Western Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Winnipeg Jets
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 13573

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Winnipeg Jets wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, the Jets must first win the Western Conference Finals. So winning the Cup implies winning the Western Conference Finals. The reverse does not hold (they could win the conference but lose the Cup).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T09:30:24Z

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