Pair #1667

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-APUT

Valspar Championship: Will Andrew Putnam make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Andrew Putnam
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 485

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.5800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andrew Putnam makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-APUT

Will Andrew Putnam lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Andrew Putnam
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1940

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andrew Putnam is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:39Z

Reasoning: In most PGA Tour events the Round 1 leader plays Round 2 and their cut status is determined after Round 2. Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in Round 2), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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