Pair #1664

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-APUT

Valspar Championship: Will Andrew Putnam finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Andrew Putnam
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2041

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andrew Putnam finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-APUT

Valspar Championship: Will Andrew Putnam finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Andrew Putnam
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13065

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andrew Putnam finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:39Z

Reasoning: If Putnam finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold: finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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