Pair #166

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-WPG

Will Winnipeg Jets win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Winnipeg Jets
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 70628

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-WPG

Will the Winnipeg Jets be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Winnipeg Jets
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 86382

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Winnipeg Jets are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup Finals requires having made the playoffs. So if the Jets win the Stanley Cup, they must have been a playoff qualifier. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T11:13:48Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue