Pair #1659

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DRIL

Valspar Championship: Will Davis Riley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Davis Riley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12583

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Riley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-DRIL

Valspar Championship: Will Davis Riley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Davis Riley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1468

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Riley makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:39Z

Reasoning: If Davis Riley finishes top 10, he must have made the cut (you cannot finish top 10 without making the cut). The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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