Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DRIL
Valspar Championship: Will Davis Riley finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Davis Riley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12583
YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Davis Riley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-DRIL
Valspar Championship: Will Davis Riley make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Davis Riley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1468
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Davis Riley makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:39Z
Reasoning: If Davis Riley finishes top 10, he must have made the cut (you cannot finish top 10 without making the cut). The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A