Pair #1656

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DRIL

Valspar Championship: Will Davis Riley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Davis Riley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12583

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Riley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-DRIL

Will Davis Riley win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Davis Riley
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 213709

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Riley wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:20Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 10 at the Valspar are events at different tournaments with no logical dependency between them.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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