Pair #1650

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-DRIL

Valspar Championship: Will Davis Riley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Davis Riley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12708

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Riley finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-DRIL

Will Davis Riley win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Davis Riley
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 213709

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Riley wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:20Z

Reasoning: These are two different tournaments. A top 5 at the Valspar does not necessitate winning the Masters, and winning the Masters does not necessitate a top 5 at the Valspar.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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