Pair #165

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLATLANTIC-26-TB

Will Tampa Bay Lightning win the NHL Atlantic Division?

Series: KXNHLATLANTIC
Entity: Tampa Bay Lightning
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 83156

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025-2026 NHL Atlantic Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-TB

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Tampa Bay Lightning
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 13540

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tampa Bay Lightning wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: Winning the President's Trophy (best record in NHL) does not require winning the Atlantic Division specifically, and winning the Atlantic Division does not require having the best overall record in the league. Neither implies the other with logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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