Pair #1648

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-DRIL

Valspar Championship: Will Davis Riley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Davis Riley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1468

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Riley makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-DRIL

Will Davis Riley lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Davis Riley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10134

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Riley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:20Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could withdraw or be disqualified before the cut), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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