Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-DRIL
Valspar Championship: Will Davis Riley finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Davis Riley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12583
YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Davis Riley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DRIL
Valspar Championship: Will Davis Riley finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Davis Riley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15581
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Davis Riley finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:03Z
Reasoning: If Davis Riley finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A