Pair #1641

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-DRIL

Valspar Championship: Will Davis Riley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Davis Riley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15581

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Riley finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-DRIL

Will Davis Riley win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Davis Riley
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 213709

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Riley wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar Championship has no logical connection to winning the Masters Tournament. These are completely independent events at different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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