Pair #1638

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 905

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 5 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 2005

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:03Z

Reasoning: If Schauffele finishes top 5 in Round 1, he is necessarily also top 10 in Round 1 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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