Pair #1637

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 905

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 5 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20542

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require a top 5 Round 1 score, and a top 5 Round 1 finish does not guarantee a top 10 overall finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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