Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VAC26-XSCH
Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5 in the 1st round?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 905
YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Xander Schauffele finishes top 5 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-XSCH
Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20542
YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:03Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require a top 5 Round 1 score, and a top 5 Round 1 finish does not guarantee a top 10 overall finish. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.2100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A