Pair #1636

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 2005

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20542

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the overall tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 specifically (a player could start poorly and climb). Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee finishing top 10 overall. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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