Pair #1635

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17202

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 905

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 5 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:33:03Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major in 2026 does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Valspar Championship (a non-major), and finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Valspar does not imply winning a major. These are completely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -12.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -16.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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