Pair #1631

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1645

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Xander Schauffele makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 2005

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:32:42Z

Reasoning: Making the cut is determined after Round 2 and does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1. Finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut after Round 2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.2800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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