Pair #163

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLPRES-26-TB

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Tampa Bay Lightning
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 13540

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tampa Bay Lightning wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-TB

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Tampa Bay Lightning
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 12710

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Tampa Bay Lightning are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: Winning the President's Trophy (best record in the NHL) guarantees a playoff spot. However, making the playoffs does not necessitate winning the President's Trophy.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:38:39Z

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