Pair #1629

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17202

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1645

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:32:42Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major, so making the cut there has no logical connection to winning a PGA major. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.13% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9200
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -71.41% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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