Pair #1625

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17202

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 547

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:32:42Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major, so leading after Round 3 of the Valspar has no logical connection to winning a PGA major. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 7.25% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +2.96% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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