Pair #1624

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 547

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1645

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:32:42Z

Reasoning: If Schauffele leads after Round 3, he must have made the cut (the cut is made after Round 2, and playing Round 3 requires having made the cut). However, making the cut does not imply leading after Round 3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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