Pair #1620

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17202

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-XSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 15456

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:32:23Z

Reasoning: Winning a major implies a top-10 finish in that major, but KXPGAMAJORTOP10 requires top-10 in ALL 4 majors. Winning one major does not guarantee top-10 in the other three. And finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not imply winning any of them. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -26.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -31.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue