Pair #1618

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-XSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 15456

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 547

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:32:23Z

Reasoning: These events are entirely unrelated — major top-10 finishes have no logical connection to leading after R3 of the Valspar (a non-major). No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 130.07% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.8800
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: +125.86% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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