Pair #1615

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1656198

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Xander Schauffele wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20542

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:32:23Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valspar Championship means finishing 1st, which is necessarily a top-10 finish. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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