Pair #1614

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17797

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1656198

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:32:23Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major, so winning it does not imply winning a major. Winning a major does not imply winning the Valspar. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 14.39% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9300
Days to maturity: 197
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: +10.08% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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