Pair #161

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLEAST-26-TB

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Tampa Bay Lightning
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 323883

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tampa Bay Lightning wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-TB

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Tampa Bay Lightning
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 13540

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tampa Bay Lightning wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:34Z

Reasoning: Winning the Eastern Conference Finals does not require winning the President's Trophy, and winning the President's Trophy does not guarantee winning the Eastern Conference Finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.8300
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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