Pair #1609

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 2005

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 11053195

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0030

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:32:03Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 10 in round 1 of the Valspar Championship are entirely unrelated events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8030
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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