Pair #1604

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-XSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 15456

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 11053195

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0030

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:32:03Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means Schauffele finishes top 10 at the Masters, but B requires top 10 in ALL 4 majors. Winning the Masters does not guarantee top 10 finishes at the other three majors. Conversely, finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not mean he won the Masters.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 165.86% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.8630
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: +161.65% PROFITABLE

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