Pair #1601

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 2005

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 38848

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:32:03Z

Reasoning: Overall tournament top 5 finish and first round top 10 finish are independent. A player can finish top 5 overall without being top 10 after round 1, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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