Pair #160

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLEAST-26-TB

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Tampa Bay Lightning
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 323883

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tampa Bay Lightning wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-TB

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Tampa Bay Lightning
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 12710

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Tampa Bay Lightning are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:34Z

Reasoning: Winning the Eastern Conference Finals requires having qualified for the playoffs. So winning the Eastern Conference logically necessitates being a playoff qualifier. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8200
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:31:29Z

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