Pair #16

Antecedent (implies)

KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-NDJO

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Novak Djokovic
Expiration: 2026-06-30T16:00:00Z
Volume: 473

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Novak Djokovic is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Jun 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-NDJO

Will Novak Djokovic win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Novak Djokovic
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 18494

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Novak Djokovic wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:46Z

Reasoning: Being #1 ranked on a specific date does not logically necessitate winning a Grand Slam, and winning a Grand Slam does not guarantee being #1 ranked on that specific date.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -32.56% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: 105
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -36.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:53:57Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue