Pair #1598

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 38848

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1645

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:31:45Z

Reasoning: If Schauffele finishes top 5 in the tournament, he must have made the cut to play the final rounds. Making the cut is a prerequisite for any competitive finish. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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