Pair #1593

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 62690

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 905

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 5 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:31:45Z

Reasoning: If Schauffele leads after Round 1, he is in position 1, which is necessarily within the top 5. The reverse does not hold — he could be top 5 without being the outright leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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