Pair #159

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-TB

Will Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Tampa Bay Lightning
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2723303

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLATLANTIC-26-TB

Will Tampa Bay Lightning win the NHL Atlantic Division?

Series: KXNHLATLANTIC
Entity: Tampa Bay Lightning
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 83156

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025-2026 NHL Atlantic Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:34Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the Atlantic Division (wild card teams can win the Cup), and winning the Atlantic Division does not guarantee winning the Cup.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 107.20% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9400
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: +102.98% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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