Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-XSCH
Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 62690
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Xander Schauffele is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-XSCH
Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1645
YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Xander Schauffele makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:31:45Z
Reasoning: If Schauffele leads after Round 1, he is still in the tournament and will unambiguously make the cut (the leader after R1 is never cut). The cut is made after Round 2, and a R1 leader participates in R2. However, making the cut does not imply he led after R1.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.9500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A