Pair #1589

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 62690

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-XSCH

Valspar Championship: Will Xander Schauffele make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1645

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:31:45Z

Reasoning: If Schauffele leads after Round 1, he is still in the tournament and will unambiguously make the cut (the leader after R1 is never cut). The cut is made after Round 2, and a R1 leader participates in R2. However, making the cut does not imply he led after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

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