Pair #1588

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 62690

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VAC26-XSCH

Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 547

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:31:45Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee leading after Round 3 — scores change across rounds. And leading after Round 3 does not require having led after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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